国内货币监测体系将要转变Domestic currency monitors a system to will transform國內貨幣監測體系將要轉變

2017年2月28日

  本周沪指跌破了前期低点2437点,最低探至2400点,这验证了小战一直以来保持的悲观情绪。近期,欧洲在翘首以盼中国施以援手,那么中国真的会出手吗?作为中国来讲,欧债危机确实对中国产生了一定的影响,那么中国内需能否如期启动?        记者  战旗

  【“完全市场经济”带来什么】

  自欧洲主权债务危机爆发以来,中国多次表示对欧洲前景“有信心”,实际上,拯救风雨飘摇的欧洲国家,中国会面临巨大的风险,因此,中国“伸出援手”的前提是欧洲应承认中国“完全市场经济”地位。那么,“完全市场经济”地位会给中国带来什么呢?

  一直以来,中国经常陷入国际贸易间的所谓“反倾销”调查中,而“被调查”的主要原因来自于中国尚未取得“完全市场经济”地位。若具有该地位,无论是陷入反倾销还是反补贴调查,都能够以国内价格为衡量标准,国内价格明显高于出口价格,才算违反公平贸易规则。不具备该地位,则以第三国国内价格来衡量,而由于汇率等因素的制约,国外很多国家的价格显著高于国内价格,因此,中国很多产业与企业都会很容易地被扣上“低价倾销”的帽子,从而对中国“名正言顺”地实施提高关税、限制出口等措施,进而起到“保护国内的相关产业”的作用。

  近年来,中国包括家电、钢铁、造纸等等诸多产业都遭遇到欧美等国的反倾销,因此,在目前中国仍处于延续出口导向型经济的局面下,尤其是全球经济不景气之时,迅速扭转这一频遭“反倾销”的不利局面,对于维持中国经济增速将起到非常重要的作用。由此我们看到,虽然中国“完全市场经济”有望按照世贸时间在2016年获得承认,但中国已“等不及”了。这是因为,欧债危机恶化势必造成欧洲经济衰退,欧洲作为中国最大的出口市场,和中国的产业竞争会更加激烈,这可能会加剧双边的贸易摩擦。为了避免这种状况发生,中国先一步要求承认“完全市场经济”。

  【扩大内需成经济新引擎】

  为了减少国际经济对国内经济的冲击,我国的宏观调控政策基调已从“二防”过渡到“一保一控”,再到近期的侧重“一保”。在出口面临回落的局面下,作为GDP三驾马车之一的内需再度被政府提出来。近期,温总理强调了内需,而在内需中又着重强调了要增强消费需求拉动力,而提高城镇化率与扩大服务业发展是温家宝重点提出的提振内需方向。

  业内认为,中国经济将立足内需,这是未来经济政策的长期核心,也是中国经济转型要完成的最重要目标之一。今后的宏观政策、产业政策、金融政策和消费政策,都将围绕内需来做文章。在“保经济、调结构、控通胀”三者之中,保经济仍是第一位的,但中国要保的是速度放慢、效率提高的增长;调结构是中长期的战略目标;应对通胀问题的关键是管住物价,影响公众的通胀预期。至于对现实通胀的严重性,决策层似乎并不太担心。那么,国内未来会如何扩大内需呢?

  内需,即内部需求,包括投资需求和消费需求两个方面。扩大内需,就是要通过发行国债等积极财政货币政策,启动投资市场,通过信贷等经济杠杆,启动消费市场,以拉动经济增长。不过,就目前国内的情况看,扩大内需面临着很多难点,最为致命的就是目前社会保障体系还不够完善,加之国内居民收入偏低以及传统储蓄观念难以整体改变,因此,扩大内需是一项长期的工作。

  扩大内需主要是通过扩大国内投资和国内消费来带动国民经济增长。由于内需已被国家重新重视起来,未来在扩大内需方面,小战认为,国家会积极采取相关的举措:第一,继续实施积极的财政政策,同时降低物价上涨水平,全力解决有效内需不足的矛盾;第二,适当提高社会保障“三条线”的保障水平,提高工职人员工资;第三,继续维持低利率与负利率局面;第四,进一步健全社会保障制度,免除消费后顾之忧。

  【影子银行造成政策失灵】

  在对抗通胀的局面下,高层认可经济可以适度地减速,而尽管本轮通胀已基本见顶回落,但此轮通胀带给人们的教训就是管理好真实的社会资金流动性。而现实的状况是,国内大量的资金脱离了管理层的监控,这就造成了政策失灵,这从本轮通胀治理的艰难程度可见一斑。就目前来看,影子银行的出现正是政策失灵的根源。根据中国人民银行的数据显示,2010年新增人民币贷款以外融资6.33万亿元,占融资总量的44.4%,这意味着所谓银信合作理财、地下钱庄、小额贷款公司、典当行等其他非银行的金融机构的贷款规模已经逼近半壁江山。这在客观上动摇了人民银行作为央行行使利率、存款准备金率等常规的抑制通胀手段的效果。

  “影子银行”的概念4年前诞生于美联储年度会议,又称“影子金融体系”或者“影子银行系统”,一般是指那些有着部分银行功能却不受监管或少受监管的非银行金融机构及金融行为。该活动在2007年开始的美国次贷危机中渐渐被人们重视,此前一直游离于市场和政府的监管之外。业内指出,中国规模较大的影子银行是银信合作,银信合作的信托方式是筹资人直接从融资方吸取资金,不会通过银行系统产生派生存款,这样客观上造成了货币供求难以真实统计。同时,银行通过银信合作将资本移出表外,“减少”了资本要求,并规避了相应的准备金计提和资本监管要求。银信合作产品的大量推出使得银行的信贷规模控制失效,银行通过银信合作的创新方式释放出了大量的资金。

  截至2011年8月末,金融机构人民币贷款余额同比增长达到16.4%,比2000-2008年平均水平15.5%高0.9个百分点。而8月当月新增人民币贷款5485亿元,比实施适度宽松货币政策的2010年同期还多增近百亿元。同时,今年1-7月社会融资规模仍然高达8.3万亿,与去年相比并没有显著下降。造成这种现象的根本原因就是影子银行近年来的迅速发展使得M2统计失真。

  【M2+即将出炉】

  正是基于国内货币统计越发困难,货币供求失真的局面,目前广义货币M2统计比实际状况有所低估,由此央行近期表示,货币政策新指标M2+出炉已进入倒计时。M2可简单定义为流通中的现金(M0)、企事业单位与居民活期存款和定期存款之和。修订后的M2将纳入金融机构同业存款、住房公积金存款、委托存款、实体经济部分持有的银行理财、外汇存款以及地方政府存款等多项指标,使得新的指标对于未来货币政策执行更具有可操作性。

  货币政策实施过程一般划分为三个步骤:政策工具—中介目标—最终目标。其中中介目标,就是在预测货币政策最终目标方面能够提供有用信息,从而指引货币当局进行政策操作的变量,M2即属于中介目标。有业内预计,今后国内将实施M2、M2+与社会融资规模三者统计并行的局面。货币量统计口径是从负债方出发,可操作性、观测性是最佳的。而社会融资规模则是从资产方出发,其结构化程度比较强,各个不同的信用供给份额也是动态变化的,统计存在一定难度。还有业内预计,推出M2+是在为M3投石问路,因为我国目前是将货币供应量划分为三个层次,即M0、M1、M2。在这三个层次中,M0与消费变动密切相关,是最活跃的货币;M1反映居民和企业资金松紧变化,是经济周期波动的先行指标,流动性仅次于M0;M2流动性偏弱,但反映的是社会总需求的变化和未来通货膨胀的压力状况,通常所说的货币供应量,主要指M2。M3=M2+企业定期存款+居民人民币定期储蓄存款+其他存款(信托存款、委托存款、保证金存款、财政预算外存款)+外币(折合人民币)存款。未来M3纳入我国货币供应量监测体系,将对国家监控实际的货币供求关系,避免此轮调控中政策失效现象,起到非常重要的作用,相信随着M3的引入,未来多次上调存准率的现象将逐渐减少。

  小战认为,推出M2+意味着国内货币政策监测体系正在发生转变。这是为了使货币政策中介目标的监测更加准确,并不意味着短期内宏观调控政策的改变。就目前来看,货币政策仍会继续处在观望期,紧缩政策在年底前整体上难以松动。

  【股市底部遥遥无期?】

  小战一直以来对股市抱有悲观态度,而近期股市的确又创出了新低,小战一直观点都是,外因只是导火索,真正决定股市的涨跌还在于内因。

  从A股历史上看,当通胀出现见顶回落之时,股市往往处于最困难的时期:2008年5月,国内通胀见顶回落,但A股当年的10月底才见底。这是因为,通胀见顶后,宏观经济会经历一定时间的低潮,而货币供应也由于通胀见顶后仍会继续紧缩或者处于最紧缩后的观望期,不会马上出现宽松,因此,在业绩下滑、资金面最为紧张的阶段,场外资金难以入场。只有在宏观经济增速出现明显下滑之后,场外资金才会进场抄底,而此时也大多会对应着政策开始放松。因此,股市当下虽然面临通胀回落的利好,但趋势性上涨机会难以出现。

  从另一个角度讲,股票定价的参照系是无风险市场收益率,如果无风险收益率高企,股市自然就缺乏吸引力,其中一个简单的道理是:股市没有无风险的收益率。当下日益膨胀的民间信贷,利率基本都超过了40%,有的甚至高达100%以上,在民间借贷泡沫仍在上演之时,不可能指望此间资金转投股市,反而不少股市资金开始流入民间信贷。因此,尽管蓝筹股目前市盈率不足10倍,但股市仍无吸引力。

  在这两大因素制约之下,股市目前整体上仍处在艰难的探底过程中,要扭转A股整体下跌的局面,需要流动性环境改变。业内认为,政策松动最早的时间窗口是年底中央经济工作会议,由于CPI下行是大概率事件,四季度通胀压力会减缓,加上愈演愈烈的发达国家债务危机、金融动荡和经济萎靡,年底的经济工作会议可能会传递一些积极的放松信号。而届时,股市可能出现一轮“吃饭行情”。

  就短期来看,百亿社保资金获准择机入市,虽然具体时间尚不清楚,但这却说明了管理层对股市持续下跌是不可能不作为的,下周如果海外股市不再暴跌,股市有望出现反弹。

下面是赵永翻译所得
This week Shanghai points to drop defeated early days low 2437 a little bit, lowermost explore comes 2400 a little bit, this test and verify Xiaozhan all the time since retentive pessimism. The near future, europe aids with longing for Chinese inflict in raise one’s head and look, so can China move really? Will tell as China, europe debt crisis produced certain effect to China really, so medium does home need whether start as scheduled? Reporter Battle banner

[” complete market economy ” what to bring]

Since crisis of European dominion debt erupts, china represents pair of Europe prospect for many times ” have hope ” , actually, save the European country of swaying in the midst of a raging storm, chinese meeting faces huge risk, accordingly, china ” extend aid ” premise is European agree identifies China ” complete market economy ” position. So, “Complete market economy ” what can the position bring to China?

All the time since, china often is immersed in international trade between alleged ” turn over a dumping ” in investigation, and ” be investigated ” main reason comes from have not obtain at China ” complete market economy ” position. If have this place, no matter be to be immersed in,turn over allowance to investigate, can be with domestic price measure a level, domestic price is apparent prep above exports the price, just calculate violate fair trade regulation. Do not have this place, be measured with price of home of the Three Kingdoms, and wait for an element as a result of exchange rate restrict, the price of a lot of countries of foreign is marked price of prep above home, accordingly, a lot of industries of Chinese and enterprise are buckled easily to go up ” low dumping ” cap, be opposite thereby China ” be perfectly justifiable ” the ground is carried out raise the measure such as exit of custom duty, limitation, rise then ” the relevant industry that protects home ” action.

In recent years, china includes home appliance, steely, papermaking to wait a lot of industry a moment to encounter Euramerican those who wait for a country turn over a dumping, accordingly, in at present China still is in continuance exit to direct model below economic situation, especially when global economy is stagnant, turn round this one frequency quickly to meet with ” turn over a dumping ” adverse situation, add to keeping Chinese economy fast the effect with will rise very main. From this we see, although China ” complete market economy ” hopeful was obtained 2016 according to world trade time admit, but China already ” wait not as good as ” . Because,this is, certainly will of aggravation of Europe debt crisis causes European economic depression, europe regards China as the biggest export market, the industrial competition with China will be more intense, this may the trade friction with bilateral aggravate. To avoid this kind of state happening, china first one pace asks to admit ” complete market economy ” .

[expand inside need economic new engine]

To lessen the international economy impact to domestic economy, the fundamental key of policy of macroscopical adjusting control of our country already from ” 2 prevent ” transfer ” protect accuse ” , arrive again of the near future emphasize particularly on ” protect ” . Below the situation that faces fall after a rise in exit, drive one of carriage as GDP3 inside need to be put forward by the government once more. The near future, premier Wen emphasized inside need, and in needing inside, emphasize again emphasized wanting to enhance consumptive demand to help motive force, and raise town to change rate and enlarging service line of business to develop is Wen Jiabao put forward mainly carry brace up inside want way.

Think inside course of study, chinese economy will need inside base oneself upon, this is the long-term core of prospective economic policy, also be one of the mainest goals that Chinese economy transition should achieve. The macroscopical policy henceforth, industry policy, banking policy and consumptive policy, will around inside need to come make an issue of. In ” maintain economy, tone structure, control inflation ” 3 person in, keeping economy still is the first, but what China should protect is the growth that speed rein in, efficiency increases; Moving a structure is medium long-term strategic goal; The key that answers inflationary question is to run price, the inflation that affects the community anticipates. As to the seriousness to actual inflation, decision-making layer appears and do not worry too. So, how can domestic future expand inside need?

Need inside, namely internal demand, include to invest demand and consumptive demand two respects. Expand inside need, want to wait for active finance monetary policy through issueing national debt namely, market of the investment that start, wait for economic lever through credit, market of the spending that start, move economic growth in order to pull. Nevertheless, current domestic circumstance looks, expand inside need to facing a lot of difficulty, most deadly is at present social security system still is perfected not quite, on the low side of income of dweller of together with home and traditional deposit idea hard integral change, accordingly, expand inside needing is a long-term job.

Expand inside needing basically is through enlarging home investment and domestic consumption drive national economy to grow. As a result of inside need to already was taken seriously to rise afresh by the country, future is expanding inside want a field, xiaozhan thinks, the country can take relevant move actively: The first, continue to implement vigorous finance policy, reduce prices to rise at the same time level, solve with all one’s strength effective inside the contradiction that needs inadequacy; The 2nd, enhance social security appropriately ” 3 lines ” safeguard level, raise wage of labor office staff; The 3rd, continue to manage low interest rate and situation of negative interest rate; The 4th, system of farther perfect social security, absolve consumptive trouble back at home.

[shadow bank causes policy to be out of order]

Below the situation of antagonism inflation, the high level approbates economy decelerate of OK and moderate land, and although epicycle inflation sees a fall after a rise basically already, but the lesson that this round of inflation brings people has managed real social fund liquidity namely. And actual state is, home’s many capital broke away from the monitoring that manages a layer, this caused policy malfunction, the hard level that this governs from epicycle inflation sees one spot. Come round to look with respect to eye, the occurrence of shadow bank is the germ that policy is out of order. Show according to the data of Chinese people bank, add a RMB newly 2010 beyond loan financing 6.33 trillion yuan, 44.4% what occupy financing gross, this means alleged silver the letter is old-style Chinese private bank of cooperative conduct financial transactions, underground, small the loan dimensions of the financial orgnaization of the other blame bank such as travel of finance company, hock has approached half of country. This is going up objectively shook the effect that people bank regards reserve of interest rate of Central Bank exercise, deposit as to lead those who wait for convention to restrain inflationary measure.

“Shadow bank ” the concept is born at beautiful couplet 4 years ago store year meeting, say again ” shadow banking system ” or ” shadow bank system ” , it is to show those are having partial bank function not to suffer however commonly superintend or get orgnaization of superintendency blame bank finance and financial act less. The United States that this activity began 2007 second in borrowing the crisis, be taken seriously by people gradually, before this all the time besides the free superintendency at the market and government. Point out inside course of study, the shadow bank with Chinese bigger dimensions is silver-colored letter collaboration, the fiducial means that silver-colored letter cooperates is to raise fund the person just draws fund from financing directly, won’t produce derive to deposit money through bank system, go up so objectively created monetary supply and demand hard actual count. In the meantime, the bank cooperates to move capital through silver-colored letter outside giving a list, “Decrease ” capital requirement, and avoid corresponding reserve plan carry and capital superintends a requirement. The pushs be sent on a diplomatic mission to get a bank in great quantities credit scale of product of silver-colored letter collaboration commands be no longer in force, the innovation means that the bank cooperates through silver-colored letter released many fund.

Up to in August 2011 end, remaining sum of loan of financial orgnaization RMB grows compared to the same period achieve 16.4% , than 2000-2008 year average level 15.5% 0.9 tall percent. And add a RMB newly that month in August to borrow money 548.5 billion yuan, of modester than carrying out loose monetary policy the corresponding period still added nearly one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight yuan more 2010. In the meantime, dimensions of financing of 1-7 month society still is as high as 8.3 trillion this year, with was compared last year and did not drop significantly. The prime cause that creates this kind of appearance is shadow bank in recent years rapid development makes M2 statistic lack fidelity.

[M2+ is about to give heat]

It is even more difficult to be based on domestic currency statistic just about, monetary supply and demand loses true aspect, at present statistic of M2 of broad sense money is underestimated somewhat than actual state, from this Central Bank near future expresses, m2+ of monetary policy new index gives furnace to already was entered time. M2 can be defined simply for current medium cash (M0) , enterprise or business unit and dweller current deposit and time deposit the sum. The M2 after editing will bring into the multinomial index such as deposit of deposit of deposit of financial orgnaization a person of same business, housing accumulation fund, the bank conduct financial transactions that trusts hold of share of deposit, hypostatic economy, foreign currency and local government deposit, make new index is carried out to prospective monetary policy have maneuverability more.

Monetary policy executive process differentiates commonly for 3 measure: Policy tool, intermediary target, ultimate goal. Among them intermediary target, be in namely forecast monetary policy ultimate goal respect can provide useful information, thereby the variable that how-to money authorities undertakes policy is operated, m2 belongs to intermediary target namely. Have predict inside course of study, home will implement M2, M2+ and social financing scale henceforth 3 person the situation with collateral statistic. Caliber of monetary amount statistic is from be in debt to just set out, sex of maneuverability, observation is first-rate. And social financing dimensions is just set out from asset, its structuralization pitch is stronger, each different credit supply share also are dynamic change, statistic is put in certain difficulty. Still have predict inside course of study, rolling out M2+ is in ask the way of the lapidation that it is M3, because our country is the money supply differentiates at present,be 3 administrative levels, namely M0, M1, M2. In these 3 administrative levels, m0 and consumption are fluctuant closely related, it is the most active money; M1 reflects dweller and change of company capital degree of tightness, it is the index of go ahead of the rest with economic fluctuant cycle, fluidity is next to M0; M2 fluidity slants weak, but the pressure state of the change that reflective is social total demand and prospective inflation, the monetary supply that says normally, basically point to M2. M3=M2+ enterprise time deposit + dweller RMB is fixed deposit deposits money + other bank savings (fiducial deposit, entrust deposit, bail deposit, finance extra-budgetary deposit) + foreign currency (amount to RMB) deposit. Prospective M3 brings into supply of our country money monitor a system, actual to national monitoring money supply demand relations, avoid appearance of lose efficacy of the policy in this round of adjusting control, have very main effect, believe as M3 introduce, will not for many times go up the appearance that tone puts standard rate drop off.

Xiaozhan thinks, roll out M2+ to mean domestic monetary policy to monitor a system occurrent change. This is to make of target of monetary policy intermediary monitor more accurate, do not mean short-term inside the change of policy of macroscopical adjusting control. Come round to look with respect to eye, monetary policy still can continue to lie wait-and-see period, constrictive policy becomes loose hard on the whole before the end of the year.

[not within the foreseeable future of stock market bottom? ]

Xiaozhan all the time since hold pessimistic attitude to the stock market, and near future stock market is achieved again really went out new low, xiaozhan is watched all the time the dot is, external cause is a fuse only, decide the stock market truly go up drop to still depend on internal cause.

From A look on the history, appear when inflation fall after a rise seeing a top when, the stock market often is in the most difficult period: May 2008, domestic inflation sees a fall after a rise, but A in those days the ability end October sees an end. Because,this is, after inflation sees a top, macroscopical economy can experience the low ebb of proper time, and the money is supplied after also seeing a top as a result of inflation, still can continue constrictive perhaps be in the most constrictive after wait-and-see period, won’t appear immediately comfortable, accordingly, glide in outstanding achievement, the level with financing most intense area, gold of field foreign capital enters hard. Add in macroscopical economy only fast after appearing to glide apparently, gold of field foreign capital just can enter the arena copy a copy, and also meet mostly right now corresponding policy begins to loosen. Accordingly, although stock market instantly faces the profit of inflationary fall after a rise good, but trend sex rises the opportunity appears hard.

Tell from another angle, the frame of reference that the stock fixes a price is yield of calm danger market, if do not have risk yield tall look forward to, stock market nature lacks appeal, among them a simple truth is: The stock market did not have the yield of the risk. The civilian credit that instantly expands increasingly, interest rate exceeded 40% basically, some is as high as 100% above even, when in folk leasehold bubble still is being performed, impossible hope here capital converts the stock market, capital of not little instead stock market begins to flow into civilian credit. Accordingly, although blue chip at present city is filled with rate inadequacy 10 times, but the stock market still does not have appeal.

Restrict in this two big factors under, the stock market still lies on whole at present by hard explore in the process, should turn round A the situation that whole drops, need fluidity environment change. Think inside course of study, policy shakes the earliest time window is the end of the year conference of central economy job, because CPI be issued to lower levels is big probability incident, pressure of four quarters inflation is met slow down, add the crisis of developed country debt that grow in intensity, finance queasy with economy dispirited, the economic job conference of the end of the year may deliver a few active relaxation signal. And at the appointed time, the stock market may appear one round ” have a meal prices ” .

Short-term in light of, permissive choose machine enters capital of one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight social security city, although specific time still is not clear about, but this says palpability manages a layer to drop continuously to the stock market however is impossible nonfeasance, next week if overseas stock market steeps fall no longer, stock market hopeful appears rebound.
下面是侯承諭翻译所得
  本周滬指跌破瞭前期低點2437點,最低探至2400點,這驗證瞭小戰一直以來保持的悲觀情緒。近期,歐洲在翹首以盼中國施以援手,那麼中國真的會出手嗎?作為中國來講,歐債危機確實對中國產生瞭一定的影響,那麼中國內需能否如期啟動?        記者  戰旗

  【“完全市場經濟”帶來什麼】

  自歐洲主權債務危機爆發以來,中國多次表示對歐洲前景“有信心”,實際上,拯救風雨飄搖的歐洲國傢,中國會面臨巨大的風險,因此,中國“伸出援手”的前提是歐洲應承認中國“完全市場經濟”地位。那麼,“完全市場經濟”地位會給中國帶來什麼呢?

  一直以來,中國經常陷入國際貿易間的所謂“反傾銷”調查中,而“被調查”的主要原因來自於中國尚未取得“完全市場經濟”地位。若具有該地位,無論是陷入反傾銷還是反補貼調查,都能夠以國內價格為衡量標準,國內價格明顯高於出口價格,才算違反公平貿易規則。不具備該地位,則以第三國國內價格來衡量,而由於匯率等因素的制約,國外很多國傢的價格顯著高於國內價格,因此,中國很多產業與企業都會很容易地被扣上“低價傾銷”的帽子,從而對中國“名正言順”地實施提高關稅、限制出口等措施,進而起到“保護國內的相關產業”的作用。

  近年來,中國包括傢電、鋼鐵、造紙等等諸多產業都遭遇到歐美等國的反傾銷,因此,在目前中國仍處於延續出口導向型經濟的局面下,尤其是全球經濟不景氣之時,迅速扭轉這一頻遭“反傾銷”的不利局面,對於維持中國經濟增速將起到非常重要的作用。由此我們看到,雖然中國“完全市場經濟”有望按照世貿時間在2016年獲得承認,但中國已“等不及”瞭。這是因為,歐債危機惡化勢必造成歐洲經濟衰退,歐洲作為中國最大的出口市場,和中國的產業競爭會更加激烈,這可能會加劇雙邊的貿易摩擦。為瞭避免這種狀況發生,中國先一步要求承認“完全市場經濟”。

  【擴大內需成經濟新引擎】

  為瞭減少國際經濟對國內經濟的沖擊,我國的宏觀調控政策基調已從“二防”過渡到“一保一控”,再到近期的側重“一保”。在出口面臨回落的局面下,作為GDP三駕馬車之一的內需再度被政府提出來。近期,溫總理強調瞭內需,而在內需中又著重強調瞭要增強消費需求拉動力,而提高城鎮化率與擴大服務業發展是溫傢寶重點提出的提振內需方向。

  業內認為,中國經濟將立足內需,這是未來經濟政策的長期核心,也是中國經濟轉型要完成的最重要目標之一。今後的宏觀政策、產業政策、金融政策和消費政策,都將圍繞內需來做文章。在“保經濟、調結構、控通脹”三者之中,保經濟仍是第一位的,但中國要保的是速度放慢、效率提高的增長;調結構是中長期的戰略目標;應對通脹問題的關鍵是管住物價,影響公眾的通脹預期。至於對現實通脹的嚴重性,決策層似乎並不太擔心。那麼,國內未來會如何擴大內需呢?

  內需,即內部需求,包括投資需求和消費需求兩個方面。擴大內需,就是要通過發行國債等積極財政貨幣政策,啟動投資市場,通過信貸等經濟杠桿,啟動消費市場,以拉動經濟增長。不過,就目前國內的情況看,擴大內需面臨著很多難點,最為致命的就是目前社會保障體系還不夠完善,加之國內居民收入偏低以及傳統儲蓄觀念難以整體改變,因此,擴大內需是一項長期的工作。

  擴大內需主要是通過擴大國內投資和國內消費來帶動國民經濟增長。由於內需已被國傢重新重視起來,未來在擴大內需方面,小戰認為,國傢會積極采取相關的舉措:第一,繼續實施積極的財政政策,同時降低物價上漲水平,全力解決有效內需不足的矛盾;第二,適當提高社會保障“三條線”的保障水平,提高工職人員工資;第三,繼續維持低利率與負利率局面;第四,進一步健全社會保障制度,免除消費後顧之憂。

  【影子銀行造成政策失靈】

  在對抗通脹的局面下,高層認可經濟可以適度地減速,而盡管本輪通脹已基本見頂回落,但此輪通脹帶給人們的教訓就是管理好真實的社會資金流動性。而現實的狀況是,國內大量的資金脫離瞭管理層的監控,這就造成瞭政策失靈,這從本輪通脹治理的艱難程度可見一斑。就目前來看,影子銀行的出現正是政策失靈的根源。根據中國人民銀行的數據顯示,2010年新增人民幣貸款以外融資6.33萬億元,占融資總量的44.4%,這意味著所謂銀信合作理財、地下錢莊、小額貸款公司、典當行等其他非銀行的金融機構的貸款規模已經逼近半壁江山。這在客觀上動搖瞭人民銀行作為央行行使利率、存款準備金率等常規的抑制通脹手段的效果。

  “影子銀行”的概念4年前誕生於美聯儲年度會議,又稱“影子金融體系”或者“影子銀行系統”,一般是指那些有著部分銀行功能卻不受監管或少受監管的非銀行金融機構及金融行為。該活動在2007年開始的美國次貸危機中漸漸被人們重視,此前一直遊離於市場和政府的監管之外。業內指出,中國規模較大的影子銀行是銀信合作,銀信合作的信托方式是籌資人直接從融資方吸取資金,不會通過銀行系統產生派生存款,這樣客觀上造成瞭貨幣供求難以真實統計。同時,銀行通過銀信合作將資本移出表外,“減少”瞭資本要求,並規避瞭相應的準備金計提和資本監管要求。銀信合作產品的大量推出使得銀行的信貸規模控制失效,銀行通過銀信合作的創新方式釋放出瞭大量的資金。

  截至2011年8月末,金融機構人民幣貸款餘額同比增長達到16.4%,比2000-2008年平均水平15.5%高0.9個百分點。而8月當月新增人民幣貸款5485億元,比實施適度寬松貨幣政策的2010年同期還多增近百億元。同時,今年1-7月社會融資規模仍然高達8.3萬億,與去年相比並沒有顯著下降。造成這種現象的根本原因就是影子銀行近年來的迅速發展使得M2統計失真。

  【M2+即將出爐】

  正是基於國內貨幣統計越發困難,貨幣供求失真的局面,目前廣義貨幣M2統計比實際狀況有所低估,由此央行近期表示,貨幣政策新指標M2+出爐已進入倒計時。M2可簡單定義為流通中的現金(M0)、企事業單位與居民活期存款和定期存款之和。修訂後的M2將納入金融機構同業存款、住房公積金存款、委托存款、實體經濟部分持有的銀行理財、外匯存款以及地方政府存款等多項指標,使得新的指標對於未來貨幣政策執行更具有可操作性。

  貨幣政策實施過程一般劃分為三個步驟:政策工具—中介目標—最終目標。其中中介目標,就是在預測貨幣政策最終目標方面能夠提供有用信息,從而指引貨幣當局進行政策操作的變量,M2即屬於中介目標。有業內預計,今後國內將實施M2、M2+與社會融資規模三者統計並行的局面。貨幣量統計口徑是從負債方出發,可操作性、觀測性是最佳的。而社會融資規模則是從資產方出發,其結構化程度比較強,各個不同的信用供給份額也是動態變化的,統計存在一定難度。還有業內預計,推出M2+是在為M3投石問路,因為我國目前是將貨幣供應量劃分為三個層次,即M0、M1、M2。在這三個層次中,M0與消費變動密切相關,是最活躍的貨幣;M1反映居民和企業資金松緊變化,是經濟周期波動的先行指標,流動性僅次於M0;M2流動性偏弱,但反映的是社會總需求的變化和未來通貨膨脹的壓力狀況,通常所說的貨幣供應量,主要指M2。M3=M2+企業定期存款+居民人民幣定期儲蓄存款+其他存款(信托存款、委托存款、保證金存款、財政預算外存款)+外幣(折合人民幣)存款。未來M3納入我國貨幣供應量監測體系,將對國傢監控實際的貨幣供求關系,避免此輪調控中政策失效現象,起到非常重要的作用,相信隨著M3的引入,未來多次上調存準率的現象將逐漸減少。

  小戰認為,推出M2+意味著國內貨幣政策監測體系正在發生轉變。這是為瞭使貨幣政策中介目標的監測更加準確,並不意味著短期內宏觀調控政策的改變。就目前來看,貨幣政策仍會繼續處在觀望期,緊縮政策在年底前整體上難以松動。

  【股市底部遙遙無期?】

  小戰一直以來對股市抱有悲觀態度,而近期股市的確又創出瞭新低,小戰一直觀點都是,外因隻是導火索,真正決定股市的漲跌還在於內因。

  從A股歷史上看,當通脹出現見頂回落之時,股市往往處於最困難的時期:2008年5月,國內通脹見頂回落,但A股當年的10月底才見底。這是因為,通脹見頂後,宏觀經濟會經歷一定時間的低潮,而貨幣供應也由於通脹見頂後仍會繼續緊縮或者處於最緊縮後的觀望期,不會馬上出現寬松,因此,在業績下滑、資金面最為緊張的階段,場外資金難以入場。隻有在宏觀經濟增速出現明顯下滑之後,場外資金才會進場抄底,而此時也大多會對應著政策開始放松。因此,股市當下雖然面臨通脹回落的利好,但趨勢性上漲機會難以出現。

  從另一個角度講,股票定價的參照系是無風險市場收益率,如果無風險收益率高企,股市自然就缺乏吸引力,其中一個簡單的道理是:股市沒有無風險的收益率。當下日益膨脹的民間信貸,利率基本都超過瞭40%,有的甚至高達100%以上,在民間借貸泡沫仍在上演之時,不可能指望此間資金轉投股市,反而不少股市資金開始流入民間信貸。因此,盡管藍籌股目前市盈率不足10倍,但股市仍無吸引力。

  在這兩大因素制約之下,股市目前整體上仍處在艱難的探底過程中,要扭轉A股整體下跌的局面,需要流動性環境改變。業內認為,政策松動最早的時間窗口是年底中央經濟工作會議,由於CPI下行是大概率事件,四季度通脹壓力會減緩,加上愈演愈烈的發達國傢債務危機、金融動蕩和經濟萎靡,年底的經濟工作會議可能會傳遞一些積極的放松信號。而屆時,股市可能出現一輪“吃飯行情”。

  就短期來看,百億社保資金獲準擇機入市,雖然具體時間尚不清楚,但這卻說明瞭管理層對股市持續下跌是不可能不作為的,下周如果海外股市不再暴跌,股市有望出現反彈。

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